Optimized artificial intelligence models for predicting project award price

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Artificial intelligence Optimization Project management Cost estimation Bid award amount Regression analysis Artificial neural network Case-based reasoning Genetic algorithm Bridges are essential components of transportation systems. The bidding process is the main determinant of whether a contractor is commissioned to complete a construction project. Therefore, contractors must rapidly and precisely estimate construction costs and the bid award amount. This study involved optimizing artificial intelligence models to forecast bid award amounts for bridge construction projects. A genetic algorithm is used in several forecasting models, including models based on multiple regression analysis, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and case-based reasoning (CBR). Data for public bridge construction projects were collected from the Taiwan government e-procurement system. The cross-validation results show that the mathematical model for the ANNs provides more reliable simulations and has a superior fit compared with the regression methods, CBR, and the conventional approach. This study provides an optimization process for estimating project award prices that improves construction and evaluations of AI-based models as well as an auxiliary tool that contractors can use to make bidding decisions. Bridges are major structures within transportation systems and serve as lifelines that connect people to economic activities. These structures enable the public to cross rivers, valleys, and terrains of all types. Taiwan is a country with many rivers and streams of all sizes. In particular , Taiwan has more than 9699 bridges constituting a total length of 502,021.8 m [33]. The bridges vary in their styles, spanning rivers and valleys or intersections of freeways, roads, and highways. Thus, bridges are essential transportation components in Taiwan. The bidding process is a crucial determinant of whether construction firms receive project contracts. Because the main objective of construction companies is to expand their business volume by being commissioned to complete various projects, preparing realistic and accurate bids is essential [3]. The Government Procurement Law in Taiwan classifies project bidding invitations as open, selective, or restricted and divides the bidding invitation process into two or three stages. Bidding award methods include the lowest bid, most advantageous bid, and multiple-awards bid [38]. The government has jurisdiction over public construction in Taiwan, and contracts are generally awarded through open bidding, in which the lowest bid wins the contract. Because general bidding prices depend on cost and profit, competitive bidding requires vendors to consider the bidding prices of other vendors …